‘Soft Brexit’ – a scenario where the UK joins a free trade area with the EU, such as the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). While tariffs would remain at zero, non-tariff barriers (including customs checks, border controls, differences in product market regulations and legal barriers) would increase the costs of trade.
‘Hard Brexit’ – a scenario where the UK and the EU do not immediately form a free trade area and the default situation is to trade under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This would result in an increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers that would be substantially larger than under soft Brexit.
New research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union.
Economic output as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) was predicted to decline by a 3.7% forecast decrease in GVA in the case of a hard Brexit, and 2.1% in a “soft” scenario. under a hard Brexit.
Edinburgh was predicted to incur a 2.7% loss in the event of hard Brexit and 1.4% if it is a soft Brexit.
Glasgow, it would be 2.4% and 1.3% respectively.
Dundee, 2.1% and 1.2%.
http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf
‘Hard Brexit’ – a scenario where the UK and the EU do not immediately form a free trade area and the default situation is to trade under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This would result in an increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers that would be substantially larger than under soft Brexit.
New research examining for the first time the potential impact of Brexit on cities and towns has found Aberdeen could be the hardest hit by higher trade costs with the European Union.
Economic output as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) was predicted to decline by a 3.7% forecast decrease in GVA in the case of a hard Brexit, and 2.1% in a “soft” scenario. under a hard Brexit.
Edinburgh was predicted to incur a 2.7% loss in the event of hard Brexit and 1.4% if it is a soft Brexit.
Glasgow, it would be 2.4% and 1.3% respectively.
Dundee, 2.1% and 1.2%.
http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/17-07-26-Brexit-trade-and-the-economic-impacts-on-UK-cities.pdf
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