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Thursday, July 07, 2011

Who owns the North Pole Part 35

The Arctic is irresistible for three simple reasons. First, a global economy addicted to fossil fuels at almost any price will always find a dealer willing to find and sell them their fix at almost any cost. Second, the strong demand for iron, uranium, gold and other metals shows little sign of ending, and won't until new goods are refashioned from old. Third, the Arctic oceans shelter some of the richest fisheries on Earth.

US, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway are becoming embroiled in disputes over boundaries on land and at sea. The United States and Canada disagree on the setting of the boundaries in the Beaufort Sea – an area of intense interest to oil drillers. Canada has yet to resolve a dispute with Denmark over the ownership of Hans Island and where the control line should be drawn in the strait between Greenland (whose sovereignty remains with Denmark) and Ellesmere Island. Of even greater significance in a world of melting ice floes is control of the North West Passage. Canada insists that it has sovereignty over the sea route and therefore must be asked about usage. The US sees it as a potential area of open water which gives it automatic right of passage for its battleships. The US and Russia still have a disagreement over the exact maritime border from the Bering Sea into the Arctic Ocean. A deal was signed with the then-USSR, but Russia has refused to ratify it.

US "soft" diplomacy was backed up with a bit of hardware. Two nuclear-powered submarines were sent to patrol 150 miles north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. The US navy move comes as Russia is said to have increased missile testing in the region and Norway has moved its main military base to the far north.

Rob Huebert, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, warned in a recent paper prepared for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute that "an arms race may be beginning...Not withstanding the public statements of peace and co-operation in the Arctic issued by the Arctic states, The strategic value of the region is growing. As this value grows, each state will attach a greater value to their own national interests in the region. The Arctic states may be talking co-operation, but they are preparing for conflict." Huebert points out that as well as opening a new ultra-hi-tech operations centre inside a mountain at Reitan, in the far north of Norway, Oslo is also spending unprecedented money on new military hardware, not least five top-of-the-range frigates. The class of vessel is called Fridtjof Nansen, after the famous polar explorer, which perhaps indicates where the navy plans to deploy them. Norway is the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter and has the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world - $550billion

Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, in a foreword to a recent Whitehall Paper published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, argued: "For now, the disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully, but climate change could alter the equilibrium over the coming years in the race of temptation for exploitation of more readily accessible natural resources." He added: "The cascading interests and broad implications stemming from the effects of climate change should cause today's global leaders to take stock, and unify their efforts to ensure the Arctic remains a zone of co-operation – rather than proceed down the icy slope towards a zone of competition, or worse a zone of conflict."

Canada's former foreign minister, Lawrence Cannon, voiced confidence his nation would win the territory. "We will exercise sovereignty in the Arctic," he told his Russian counterpart in talks in Moscow.

Aqqaluk Lynge, former chairman of the indigenous peoples' forum, the Inuit Circumpolar Council said "There is a military build-up and an increase in megaphone diplomacy … We do not want a return to the cold war,"

Paul Berkman, director of the Arctic Ocean geopolitics programme at the Scott Polar Research Institute, believes the deluge of books and features highlighting potential problems cannot be dismissed as melodrama. "You have to ask why are these alarming and alarmist headlines being written and it may be there is unfinished business from the Cold War."

The race into the Arctic is inevitable in a world that prizes mineral wealth but takes the natural world for granted.

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