The number of births in Scotland has slumped to a 17-year low . Scotland now has the lowest fertility rate across the UK, where the birth rate has also been falling at a slower rate over the past decade.
Scotland’s population has failed to keep pace with those of other European countries, despite immigration boosting the numbers in recent years. The Scottish population is still continuing to grow but this is down to immigration, as the deaths outstrip births by 5,000 annually. Along with improved healthcare, this means that a greater proportion of older people make up the profile of the population. This puts increasing pressure on public services, with the latest figures showing that Alzheimer’s and dementia now account for more than one in every ten deaths in Scotland – double the rate of a decade ago. The most common cause of death was cancer, which accounted for 4,242 deaths – an increase of 5.9 per cent.
The working age population in Scotland’s rural areas will plummet by a third by 2046, new research has found. The very existence of communities in remote corners of the Highlands and islands is threatened by a “spiral of decline” caused by depopulation. A report by the James Hutton Institute found that “sparsely populated areas” - defined as those where fewer than 10,000 people can be reached within 30 minutes of travel - account for almost half of Scotland, but just 2.6 per cent of the population live there. It is these areas that are projected to lose more than a quarter of their population within the next 30 years, with Western Isles, Argyll and the Southern Uplands among the worst affected.
Scotland’s population has failed to keep pace with those of other European countries, despite immigration boosting the numbers in recent years. The Scottish population is still continuing to grow but this is down to immigration, as the deaths outstrip births by 5,000 annually. Along with improved healthcare, this means that a greater proportion of older people make up the profile of the population. This puts increasing pressure on public services, with the latest figures showing that Alzheimer’s and dementia now account for more than one in every ten deaths in Scotland – double the rate of a decade ago. The most common cause of death was cancer, which accounted for 4,242 deaths – an increase of 5.9 per cent.
The working age population in Scotland’s rural areas will plummet by a third by 2046, new research has found. The very existence of communities in remote corners of the Highlands and islands is threatened by a “spiral of decline” caused by depopulation. A report by the James Hutton Institute found that “sparsely populated areas” - defined as those where fewer than 10,000 people can be reached within 30 minutes of travel - account for almost half of Scotland, but just 2.6 per cent of the population live there. It is these areas that are projected to lose more than a quarter of their population within the next 30 years, with Western Isles, Argyll and the Southern Uplands among the worst affected.
A study of statistics from 1850 to the present day reveals that Scotland is the only country in western Europe where the home population is barely higher than it was 40 years ago.
The contrast with England is particularly stark. Over the past 150 years numbers south of the border have grown by 216 per cent while in Scotland they have risen by less than a third of that. Ironically, the increase owes much to immigration from England.
The contrast with England is particularly stark. Over the past 150 years numbers south of the border have grown by 216 per cent while in Scotland they have risen by less than a third of that. Ironically, the increase owes much to immigration from England.
A detailed study of population figures by Michael Anderson of Edinburgh University shows that Scotland’s poor growth figures have less to do with mortality, poor health. Across Scotland the population is predicted to grow slightly but the increase would be entirely as a result inward migration, as deaths will outnumber births in each year. Western Isles, Argyll and Bute, Highland, Moray, Shetland and Orkney are all expected to witness a decline in the number of young people in the area, as well as rises in those above pensionable age, of up to 33% in the case of Moray.
The majority of councils will experience fewer births than deaths, leaving migration as the driving force behind the growth.
Official forecasts show that the number of people living in the Western Isles could drop by 14% over the next two decades, while the Outer Hebrides could also be hit by a 28% fall in the number of children – the largest decreases in Scotland. Argyll and Bute is also predicted to lose 8% of its population by 2039, the third highest reduction in the country. Highland, Moray and Orkney are among seven other areas where the population will rise, but the growth is expected to be made-up entirely of older people, putting additional strain on social care services. Aberdeenshire is expected to have had the third highest population growth in Scotland by 2039, increasing by 20%, with Aberdeen City due to rise by 17%. Much of the increase would again be among pensioners, particularly in Aberdeenshire.
“The implications for councils with a decreasing population include: fewer people to pay council tax, a lack of local workforce which may make the area less attractive to businesses, and low population figures making some local services harder to sustain.”
A Moray Council spokesman said: “We have known for some time that Moray is facing a ticking time bomb in terms of its increasing ageing population and the demands that will place on our care services."
Official forecasts show that the number of people living in the Western Isles could drop by 14% over the next two decades, while the Outer Hebrides could also be hit by a 28% fall in the number of children – the largest decreases in Scotland. Argyll and Bute is also predicted to lose 8% of its population by 2039, the third highest reduction in the country. Highland, Moray and Orkney are among seven other areas where the population will rise, but the growth is expected to be made-up entirely of older people, putting additional strain on social care services. Aberdeenshire is expected to have had the third highest population growth in Scotland by 2039, increasing by 20%, with Aberdeen City due to rise by 17%. Much of the increase would again be among pensioners, particularly in Aberdeenshire.
“The implications for councils with a decreasing population include: fewer people to pay council tax, a lack of local workforce which may make the area less attractive to businesses, and low population figures making some local services harder to sustain.”
A Moray Council spokesman said: “We have known for some time that Moray is facing a ticking time bomb in terms of its increasing ageing population and the demands that will place on our care services."
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