Scotland's Weather Forecast for Tomorrow ?

While doing the previous blog posting Socialist Courier came across research describing the possible local effects of climate change upon Scotland , a report by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency .

The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events.

More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties
Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply
Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs
Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies
Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality
Enhanced plant/algal growth due to increased temperature
Increase run-off increasing nutrient loading in water
Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season
Higher temperatures less favourable for native species
High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat
Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning
Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations)
More frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties
Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat
Loss of traditional commercial fishery
Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links
Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change
Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion
Changes to agricultural practice and crops
Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs
Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress
Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future
An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover

The future indeed looks bleak . Left unchecked, climate change will accelerate with significant consequences for Scotland’s environment and society. It is time for a real change of the political climate . Scotland and the world needs Socialism .

Its going to get hotter

Global warming may reduce the number of people who will die from the cold each winter , In the UK for instance, there are 20,000 cold-related deaths but researchers in America claim that this will be off - set by an increase of deaths resulting fro heat-waves ( at present, about 1000 deaths a year are related to heat in the UK ).

Researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health looked at the deaths of more than 6.5 million people in 50 US cities between 1989 and 2000. They found that during two-day cold snaps there was a 1.59% increase in deaths because of the extreme temperatures, but during similar periods of extremely hot weather death rates rose by 5.74%.

The 2003 European-wide heat wave and its associated fatalities ( nearly 15,000 deaths in France ) , can be expected to repeat itself .

Not just deaths but economic effects such as reduced crop harvests , too , Wheat had an overall short-fall of 10% .

Professor Bill Keatinge of Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry in London said about the report :-

"In the long term we may have to make some lifestyle changes - working at different times for instance, but nothing that is not manageable."

Socialist Courier believes that the change which is necessary is one of social systems , a change from Capitalism to Socialism , not simply a switch to siestas in the mid-day sun .

Elsewhere on the BBC website we read a study was produced by more than 200 experts from 25 countries predict tens of millions of people could be driven from their homes by encroaching deserts, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia ( this supports earlier research ) . 50 million people could be displaced within the next 10 years. Desertification is an environmental crisis of global proportions, and one third of the Earth's population are potential victims of its effect. Over-exploitation of land and unsustainable irrigation practices are making matters worse. Climate change was also a major factor degrading the soil.

Zafar Adeel, the lead author of the report, said: "...we need to provide alternative livelihoods - not the traditional cropping based on irrigation, cattle farming, etcetera - but rather introduce more innovative livelihoods which don't put pressure on the natural resources. Things like ecotourism or using solar energy to create other activities."

In a sane , rational , logical society indeed that is what would probably happen , but we live in a market -dominated , profit-motivated world where such decisions are made by partisan politicians at the beck and call of businessmen and accountants and not by sober-minded scientists and other experts .

The Tragedy of the Irish Travelling Folk

Life expectancy of Irish Travellers still at 1940s levels . Back in the 1940s, the life expectancy of Irish Travellers was the same as that of the settled population. Now, it is 65 for men as against 75 for settled men, and 65 as against 78 for settled women. There has been no improvement in life expectancy for travellers in 20 years.

Findings show that seven in 10 travellers die before reaching the age of 59. Half die before the age of 39. In the total population, 2.6% of all deaths are for people aged under 25 years yet the figure for the Travelling community is 32%.
Such statistics put the estimated 30,000 Travelling community well outside the health norms of Irish society.

Infant mortality is 10 times higher among Travellers. 10% of children die before reaching the age of two - compared to just 1% in the general population.

Suicides are also more common than among the general population.

It follows decades of campaigns for Travellers' rights. The only possible conclusion is that these campaigns have failed. Prejudice and exclusion remain sharp, and living conditions have actually worsened. The report points to Traveller reluctance to use the State services, including hospitals. That will not end while what it calls the "begrudging" attitude of government departments continues.

Advising or pulling the strings ?

Gordon Brown is creating a special council of business leaders to advise him directly as Prime Minister. It will meet two or three times a year and will advise Mr Brown on whether government policy is helping or damaging Britain's competitiveness. Members will be available to Mr Brown to give him advice as and when needed.

BUSINESS COUNCIL MEMBERS
Damon Buffini, Permira
Stuart Rose, Marks & Spencer
Tony Heywood, BP
Sir Terry Leahy, Tesco
Arun Sarin, Vodafone
Stephen Green, HSBC
Sir John Rose, Rolls-Royce
Mervyn Davies, Std. Chartered
J-P Garnier, GlaxoSmithKline

Gordon Brown - muppet and puppet

Who Owns the North Pole - Part 2

Further to this earlier blog on the newly discovered economic and strategic potential of a warmer Arctic region , Russian geologists now say they have data that would support a claim to about 1.2m sq km (463,000 sq miles) of energy-rich territory in the Arctic .
The Russian team, from the Oceanology Research Institute in St Petersburg, estimates that the Lomonosov ridge area in the Arctic contains oil and gas reserves of up to 10 billion tonnes. The geologists spent 45 days studying the Lomonosov underwater ridge.

The Law of the Sea Convention allows states an economic zone of 200 nautical miles, which can sometimes be expanded. To extend the zone, a state has to prove that the structure of the continental shelf is similar to the geological structure within its territory.

Needless to say , when it comes to a scramble for the natural wealth and riches of the world there are rarely no competitors and in this case Denmark are laying their claim to sovereignty to parts of the region also . Science Minister Helge Sander said that success would give Denmark access to "new resources such as oil and natural gas".

"First, we have to make the scientific claim. After that, there will be a political process with the other countries," science ministry official Thorkild Meedom said.

In the past , such political process between capitalist nations over raw materials has included war and invasion . It is not beyond the bounds of reason to expect a militarisation of the Arctic Circle and possible armed conflict as competing nations vie for control .

Crime Pays for Some

A junior barrister was handed more than £1 million in legal aid last year, it was revealed yesterday. Balbir Singh, head of Birmingham’s Equity Chambers, was paid £1,116,000 in 2005/06.

The second-highest paid was Nigel Lithman, QC, who received £978,000 in legal aid, followed by John C. Rees, QC, with £947,000.

Four of the 10 top-earning criminal barristers were from the same chambers: 2 Bedford Row in London. Mr Lithman, William Clegg, QC, Jim Sturman, QC and Howard Godfrey, QC had a combined pay-out of £3.3 million.

Tuckers Solicitors was the highest paid criminal firm, receiving £8.5 million in the year from the legal aid purse. They were followed by Irwin Mitchell (£5.3 million) and Burton Copeland (£5 million).

In a separate list of community legal service firms - carrying out non-criminal work - the highest paid was Duncan Lewis Solicitors with just under £7 million, followed by Irwin Mitchell with £5.2 million.

The law is an instrument of the owning class, that pretends to be for everyone, but is only for the rich. It's an instrument of class domination.

Shakespeare's Henry VI — “First thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers” - Perhaps , on reflection that maybe a sanction a little bit too severe .

Aghanistan - Opium for the people

Despite the presence of more than 30,000 international troops , the World Drug Report says more than 90% of illegal opium (compared to 70% in 2000 and 52% a decade earlier,), comes from Afghanistan. Helmand province alone cultivates almost half the world's illegal opium.

Thomas Pietschmann, the report's author, says production in Helmand has now outstripped that of entire countries.

"The province of Helmand itself is around 70,000 hectares under cultivation, which is three times the total area under cultivation in Myanmar (Burma). So only one province, three times as important as the whole of Myanmar, the second-largest opium-producing country," Mr Pietschmann says.

Harvests have been rising significantly since the US/British overthrow of the Taliban regime five years ago and last year's rise in Afghanistan pushed global production up by a massive 43% compared to 2005 .

Meanwhile the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports U.S. and/or NATO forces are killing Afghan civilians at a faster rate than militant insurgents .

Why are we there , again ? To bring law and order and stability , was it ?

POVERTY IN DUNDEE

Every week in the Dundee-produced Sunday Post kids can enjoy the cartoon adventures of Oor Wullie, but the reality is much harder for children in that city as a recent report from a local paper shows. "A new study by a children’s charity has reinforced a recent raft of statistics ramming home the shameful message that many thousands of Scots children—many of whom are in Dundee and Tayside—are living in poverty. Save the Children has demanded that the new Scottish Executive takes immediate action on its disclosures that nearly 100,000 children are in families struggling to get by on unacceptably low incomes.... In January, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation indicated that while Glasgow continued to set the benchmark for children living below the breadline, Dundee had four council wards where the percentage of children dependent on state handouts was twice the national average. Last month, Barnardo’s put the number of children living in poverty at a quarter of a million, with one in three children in Dundee caught in the trap." (Courier, 24 June) RD

Social Mobility Stands Still

A charity's study has found that children born in the 1950s had a better chance of escaping poverty than those born in the 1970s. The research was carried out on behalf of the Sutton Trust by the London School of Economics .

Professor Steve Machin, from LSE, said: "We had a very big expansion of the higher education system in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but contrary to many people's expectations this actually reinforced social immobility." People at the bottom of the "income distribution" were ill-equipped to take advantage of the greater opportunities.

The founder of education policy group, the Sutton Trust, Sir Peter Lampl says Britain has "the lowest social mobility of any country you can measure".

He went on to say that inequality between the rich and poor in Britain was a root cause of the problem.

This study re-confirms an earlier LSE report on social mobility and Peter Lampl echoes the view of Alan Milburn, the former Labour cabinet minister who grew up in a single-parent family on a council estate, who said it would be harder today for someone from a similar background to get ahead in society than it was a generation ago.

MUSLIM HYPOCRISY

All religions are full of hypocrisy, but in view of recent declarations of Muslim holy men decrying decadent Western culture, this report must be up there with Christian hypocrisy in the all-time hypocrisy stakes. "It's Monday night in a dingy club on the outskirts of the Syrian capital. Two dozen girls are moving half-heartedly on the dance floor, lit up by flashing disco lights. They are dressed in tight jeans, low-cut tops and knee-high boots, but the girls' make-up can't disguise the fact that most are in their mid-teens. It's a strange sight in a conservative Muslim country, but this is the sex business, and it's booming as a result of the war in Iraq. Backstage, the manager sits in his leather chair, doing business. A Saudi client is quoted $500 for one of the girls. Eventually he beats it down to $300. Next door, in a dimly lit room, the next shift of girls arrives, taking off the black all-covering abayas they wear outside and putting on lipstick and mascara." (Independent, 24 June) RD

RISING PROFITS

If real wages are falling in relation to the wealth produced, the opposite is happening on the profits front. A good example of the fabulous wealth of the capitalist class can be seen from the frenzied bidding going on at London art sales. A painting by Francis Bacon fetched £21.58 million, a Lucian Freud went for £7.86 million and a Damein Hirst medicine chest sold for £9.65 million. "The frenzy of art buying offered more evidence of the widening gulf between London' super-rich and the rest of the country. This week it was revealed that only a fraction of the 400 people earning £10 million or more in Britain pay income tax, while the number of individuals earning £500,000 has swelled by nearly 60 per cent in the past four years." (Times, 23 June) RD

FALLING WAGES (2)

Another example of how worker' wages have been falling appeared recently. "Consumers' disposable income has fallen by a sixth over the past four years, according to a report that highlights the squeeze on homeowners from the increase in mortgage costs, fuel bills and other essential payments. Just 22 per cent of a typical household’s monthly income is left over after taxes and essential bills have been paid, down from 28 per cent in 2003-2004, according to a study by report from Ernst & Young, the accountants. ... Adjusted for inflation, that means that an average family has seen their disposable income - "The pound in their pocket" - drop by 12.5 per cent." (Times, 22 June) RD

The Poor - Poor Health Report

Socialist Courier has reported previously on the link between poverty and health and we make no apologies of continuing to highlight the problem that the poorer we are , the more we are at risk health-wise and that the establishment political parties have failed to resolve this state of affairs no matter how many reforms or campaigns . The politicians pay lip-service to change but nothing really changes .

The Sunday Herald reports that the gap in standards of health between people in the richest and most deprived areas of Scotland has grown rather than diminished in the past two decades. A new study has revealed how disparities in wellbeing among different sectors of society have improved little since the 1980s.

Although male life expectancy increased overall during the 20-year period, the gap between the richest and poorest widened from five years to seven and a half years during that time.

In addition, there was a doubling of the gap in heart disease hospitalisation rates between the most and least deprived areas.

In the early 1980s, the percentage of low-birthweight babies being born to mothers in poor areas was 6.7%, which was 2.9% more than those in the least deprived category. But by the late 1990s, the difference had grown to a 3.4% gap.

Professor Phil Hanlon, public health expert at Glasgow University, pointed out that differences in the health of the rich and the poor had existed for hundreds of years. But he added it was disappointing that government efforts in the past 15 years in Scotland had not succeeded in closing the gap.

Peter Kelly, director of the Poverty Alliance said "These poorer health outcomes are not solely the responsibility of individual action and behaviours, but are the outcome of larger social processes,"

What an Arsonist

Remember Lord Watson ? The disgraced former Glasgow Cathcart MSP and Labour culture minister who set fire to a hotel room and served a prison sentence for arson .

According to the Sunday Herald , he has claimed almost £32,000 in House of Lords' expenses since his release - £11,918 for "overnight subsistence" - shorthand in the Lords for hotel bills , £7014 in office costs , £7394 in "day subsistence", an allowance peers can claim for showing face in the chamber , £5606 in travel costs .

And his contribution to British democracy to justify such rich pickings ?

A half an hour's worth of speeches over the 10-month period - A short contribution on the future of BBC Scotland. This was followed by a 12-minute speech on renewable energy, a seven-minute contribution on International Women's Day and nine minutes on child poverty. His House of Lords' activity works out at around £8000 per speech.

Watson does not sit on any parliamentary committees, and no record exists of him tabling any written questions .

Not too bad for an ex-felon .

LAND OF THE FREE?

One of the great Hollywood fantasies is that dirty foreigners are up to no good, but that decent US citizens always behave beautifully, but according to recent US government disclosures this is indeed a Hollywood fantasy. "The US Central Intelligence is to declassify hundreds of documents detailing some of the the agency's worst illegal abuses from the 1950s to 1970s The papers, to be released next week, will detail assassination plots, domestic spying and wiretapping, kidnapping and human experiments. Among the incidents that were said to "present legal questions" were: ..assassination plots of foreign leaders, including Cuba's Fidel Castro .. wiretapping and surveillance of journalists ...surveillance of dissident groups between 1967 and 1971." (BBC News, 22 June) RD

Food for Thought

From the Independent , the newspaper thats rapidly acquiring the reputation for doom and gloom , another story of impending catastrophe . The era of cheap food is coming to an end .

In the UK food prices are now rising at 6 per cent a year, twice as quickly as the general cost of living . In India the overall food price index is 10 per cent higher than last year. In China, prices are up 20 per cent for some staples. A similar inflationary trend can be seen in America.

Earlier this month, wheat prices reached their highest level in 10 years. Maize prices have doubled over the past year. Rice prices are rising too. Rice prices are climbing worldwide. Butter prices in Europe have spiked by 40 per cent in the past year. Global soybean prices have risen by a half. The food price index in India was up by 11 per cent year on year. In Mexico there have been riots in response to a 60 per cent rise in the cost of tortillas. The price of cereals in this country has jumped by 12 per cent in the past year. And the cost of milk on the global market has leapt by nearly 60 per cent.

This is being passed on to the price of other foodstuffs such as meat and eggs, as much of these commodities are used for animal feed. Pork prices in China are up 20 per cent on last year . Butter prices in Europe have risen by 40 per cent in the past year.Rising global prices will hit poor countries hardest.

One reason for the price surge is the wholesale diversion of grain crops into the production of ethanol. Thirty per cent of next year's grain harvest in the US will go straight to an ethanol distillery. As the US supplies more than two-thirds of the world's grain imports (The US ships more grain than Canada, Australia and Argentina combined. ) this unprecedented move will affect food prices everywhere. In Europe farmers are switching en masse to fuel crops to meet the EU requirement that bio-fuels account for 20 per cent of the energy mix. Jean Ziegler, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, accused the US and EU of "total hypocrisy" for promoting ethanol production in order to reduce their dependence on imported oil. He said producing ethanol instead of food would condemn hundreds of thousands of people to death from hunger.
"Recently there's been a huge increase in the demand for industrial corn for the production of ethanol which inevitably pushes up the price of food stuffs," says Dawn McLaren, a research economist at the W P Carey School of Business in Phoenix, Arizona. "But if we get a particularly bad harvest or if a weather system like El Niño strikes we could be really stuck." Mrs McLaren says that as the West looks to replace its oil, poor people will pay the price. "It doesn't strike me as a very good idea to start using yet another vital and limited resource to wean ourselves off oil,"

Other reasons for rising food prices have been several bad harvests and adverse weather. Or it could be the spike in farmers' fuel prices as a result of instability in the Middle East. Perhaps likely is a substantial global demand shift is beginning to affect prices. There is a higher demand for cereals from China and India. India has become a net importer of wheat for the first time since 1975. China is expected to become a net importer of maize by 2008.

The solutions being offered ? Greater trade liberalisation to bring prices down .
New technology - to bioengineer crops specifically to be used for fuel to minimise the effect on the food market.

But the simpler solution , to create a society where peoples needs take priority over the capitalist market is once again over-looked .
The re-organisation of resources without the requirement to provide the capitalist class with profits would address and remove many of the worlds problems of food shortages .
The answer lies in Socialism .

We are getting poorer

Disposable income has fallen to a five-year low, according to a study by Ernst & Young.

Big rises in household costs continue to outstrip wage increases .

Average monthly mortgage repayments, typically a household's largest monthly outgoing, have soared 65% in the last four years, and are up 12% in the last year alone.

Also seeing above inflation rises on a host of fixed costs such as council tax bills ( Up 20% since 2003/04 for a band D property) , water rates, pension contributions and petrol (11.7% higher than last year)

Household bills have risen by 31% since 2003/04, and now account for more than 50% of a typical household's gross income, up 5% in the same period.

Loans, credit cards and overdrafts have soared more than 30% in the last four years, with the average unsecured debt now standing at £8,028 - compared to £6,568.

The average British household now has £837.53 disposable cash to spend each month after total fixed outgoings.

Gap between rich and poor 'could cause riots'

One of Britain’s richest men has given warning that the gap between rich and poor could eventually lead to violence and rioting on the streets.
Sir Ronald Cohen, founder of Apax Partners, the private equity firm, and a close ally of Gordon Brown, said in an interview that if people are “left behind” in the race to accumulate riches, Britain could see a repeat of the Paris riots two years ago.

Sir Ronald Cohen , a big Labour donor who has an estimated £260 million fortune, highlighted his concerns about the future for Britain’s haves and have-nots, saying that the widening gap was "something to be concerned about".
He said: “Entrepreneurial economies which have high rates of growth and high rates of job creation do lead to great divergences in wealth.When economic situations get bad, it takes a spark to ignite a violent reaction.”
His spokesman told the newspaper later: “He was referring to how when people get left behind, when young men get left behind, for economic or welfare reasons, it can lead to violence, such as during the riots in Paris.”

As reported in the Daily Telegraph , of the 400 hundred people thought to be paid more than £10 million a year in dividends, interest, rents and profits , only 65 face income tax bills, according to figures obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.

We in the Socialist Party fully understand the frustrations of the working class when we all witness the inequalities of society , but we would counsel our fellow workers to use their political power to do away with Capitalism , rather than futilely take to the streets .

A Princely Sum for Some

PRINCE William turns 25 today and becomes entitled to part of the inheritance left to him by his mother Diana . He gains access to the income accrued on the £6.5 million he was left in the Princess's will. Following investment, this is estimated to have grown to around £9 million .

But unlike you or me who would need the money to pay bills and acquire a few luxuries to make life easier for ourselves , inside sources said that the future king will, for now, not touch the money - estimated by financial experts to be between £250,000 and £300,000 a year.

FALLING WAGES

"Globalisation has reduced the bargaining power of unskilled workers and pushed up inequality in many western countries, the OECD said yesterday, urging governments to improve their social safety nets. The Paris-based rich nations club said in its annual Employment Outlook that the prospect of off shoring was likely to have increased the vulnerability of jobs and wages in developed countries. ...The report pointed to a "remarkable" fall in the share of wages of national income in OECD member countries in the past couple of decades. Japanese wages have fallen by around a quarter as a share of GDP in the past 30 years, while they have dropped 13% in the 15 wealthier European Union countries and 7% in the United States, the report showed. US wages as a share of GDP remain ahead of those in the EU." (Guardian, 20 June) Another example of how the development of capitalism only benefits the owning class.RD